That is the online model of the WSJ’s publication on the economic system. You’ll be able to join day by day supply right here.

On the Mend, Slowly

New purposes for unemployment advantages have eased in current weeks however stay at traditionally excessive ranges, indicating that the labor market is therapeutic however nonetheless removed from recovered from the financial shock brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. Economists surveyed by The Wall Avenue Journal are forecasting 923,000 new claims within the week ending Aug. 15, one other weekly decline however nonetheless effectively above the best stage recorded earlier than this yr. Claims are a tough proxy for layoffs. In the meantime, a federally funded $600-per-week enhanced unemployment profit expired on the finish of July. That prompted the fee to recipients on common state applications—greater than 15 million individuals close to the tip of July—to fall to ranges authorised by their states, which common a little bit greater than $300 every week, Eric Morath reviews. 

The Labor Division releases the newest claims knowledge immediately at eight:30 a.m. ET.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

The European Central Financial institution releases minutes from its July 15-16 assembly at 7:30 a.m. ET. 

U.S. jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 15 are anticipated to fall to 923,000 from 963,000 every week earlier. (eight:30 a.m. ET)

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for August is predicted to fall to 20.zero from 24.1 a month earlier. (eight:30 a.m. ET)

The Convention Board’s main financial index for July is predicted to rise 1.1% from the prior month. (10 a.m. ET)

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks on the way forward for work at a digital occasion hosted by her financial institution at 1 p.m. ET.

Japan’s consumer-price index for July is out at 7:30 p.m. ET.

TOP STORIES

A Little Much less Dialog

U.S.-China commerce talks are delayed, not derailed. Negotiators plan to confer by video within the coming days over progress in fulfilling phrases of the “Section One” commerce deal and U.S. actions towards Chinese language expertise companies, in line with officers in each nations. The talks have been thrown into doubt Tuesday evening when President Trump stated that he had canceled a digital assembly due to his anger over the best way Beijing dealt with the coronavirus pandemic. The 2 sides nonetheless haven’t picked a selected date and it wasn’t clear why, although a delay offers Chinese language officers extra time to purchase U.S. items and present that they’re attempting to dwell as much as the deal’s formidable buy targets, Bob Davis and Lingling Wei report.

China is focusing on prime scientific and technological experience within the U.S. and different superior nations by means of an increasing community of 600 talent-recruitment stations world-wide, Kate O’Keeffe and Aruna Viswanatha report.

Counting Down the Minutes

Federal Reserve officers final month noticed the necessity for extra assist for the economic system. Minutes from the Fed’s July 28-29 assembly launched Wednesday confirmed officers believed extra authorities spending can be wanted to forestall an extended or deeper downturn amid difficulties suppressing the coronavirus. A variety of officers additionally believed extra stimulus from the Fed may very well be required. With rates of interest already lower to close zero, Fed officers might do that by offering extra specifics about how lengthy they’ll maintain charges low, Nick Timiraos reviews.

No deal. Lawmakers from each events are rising more and more apprehensive by the stalemate over a coronavirus help bundle.

The letter of the month is…W. That’s maybe essentially the most hanging takeaway from Financial institution of America’s month-to-month survey of worldwide fund managers. Simply 17% anticipate a V-shaped restoration for the economic system. The plurality, some 37%, now anticipate a W form, also referred to as a double dip. That’s up from 30% within the prior month’s survey. And 31% now anticipate a restoration that resembles a U, Aaron Again reviews.

Covid-19 Appeared to Be Beneath Management in Europe…

Coronavirus infections are surging once more throughout a lot of Europe and governments are racing to forestall a full-fledged second wave of the pandemic —with out resorting to the form of broad lockdowns that devastated their economies within the spring.

Crimson Steel

Copper rose above $three a pound for the primary time in additional than two years on Wednesday, extending a current rally pushed by regular Chinese language demand and disruptions to international provide. The industrial steel is used to fabricate every part from smartphones to houses. Costs tumbled early within the yr when the coronavirus shut down the Chinese language economic system, however they’ve rebounded these days with manufacturing exercise in China accelerating, Amrith Ramkumar reviews.

Winners and Losers

Apple Inc. on Wednesday grew to become the primary U.S. public firm to eclipse $2 trillion in market worth, a dizzying achievement that highlights the iPhone maker’s commanding function on the earth economic system. The inventory has greater than doubled from its March 23 low, boosted by regular demand for the corporate’s units and better-than-feared ends in its core iPhone enterprise as thousands and thousands of People make money working from home, Amrith Ramkumar reviews.

Finance chiefs are writing down the worth of firm property akin to airplanes, cruise ships and film theaters in response to adjustments in shopper habits throughout the coronavirus pandemic. The two,000 largest U.S. companies by market capitalization—from oil firms to airways and restaurant chains—have been recording greater pre-tax impairments as current property and investments produce poor returns amid the financial downturn, Mark Maurer reviews.

WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING

What occurs if Congress and the White Home don’t agree on a brand new stimulus program? Much less direct help to households and a possible blow to the economic system. “As an instance the potential macroeconomic impression of reducing assist, we assume that direct help to households will fall by $500 billion. We estimate that the impression can be a deeper recession, a lack of GDP of four% to five%, and an related four% to five% enhance within the unemployment fee,” Sherman Robinson and Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda write on the Peterson Institute for Worldwide Economics.

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